2026 Election preview

While the U.S. Senate and congressional races have attracted most of the attention this election cycle, we have a host of state and local races on the ballot this November in Kentucky. There are 119 legislative seats up for election across the state. Below is a preview of these elections and the impact they may have on state policy in the Commonwealth.

KY Legislative Races

Over the years redistricting and a shift in party registrations in Kentucky have led to an increase in the number of contested races in the May primary. This year was no different, and it resulted in three incumbents (Banta-R, Grossberg-D, Chester-Burton-D) losing their elections this spring. 

Looking ahead to the general election in November, given the lower number of open seats, the number of uncontested districts, it seems that fewer seats are likely to switch from one party to another and Republicans seem likely to maintain their supermajorities in the House and Senate. We have highlighted several of the races below that seem to be more competitive in November.

Below we have summarized the basic statistics on the 2026 House and Senate elections which we derived from these spreadsheets: House Candidates & Senate Candidates.
 

House 100 Seats – 51 seats are unopposed (42 GOP-9 Dem) – 43 incumbents with challenges – 6 open seats – 9 rematches of previous electionsSenate 19 of 38 Seats Up – 9 seats are unopposed (All GOP) – 9 incumbents with challenges – 1 open seat (GOP-Higdon)

A few races of interest to watch in the House:

– House District 14: Open seat due to the retirement of House Education Chairman Scott Lewis. Pate is a nurse and local official that won the GOP primary and has been endorsed by the KY Chamber. Haynes is a union leader.

– House District 27: Open seat due to the retirement of Nancy Tate. Joe Redmon (retired military) has been endorsed by the KY Chamber and won GOP primary. Doman is a newcomer.

– House District 31: Rep. Susan Witten gets another Democrat challenger in Tim Hall. She won by 300 & 700 votes against her last two Democrat challengers.

– House District 38: Rep. Roarx gets a rematch with McKeehan that she beat by 250 votes in 2024.

House District 45: Rep. Moore (D) gets a challenge in his first defense of the district after beating T.Jefferson (R) who beat the then incumbent Timoney (R) in 2024 flipping the seat. Timoney looks to win the seat back.

– House District 65: Rep. Dietz gets a rematch with Aaron Currin, an attorney, who Dietz beat by 2500 votes in 2024.

– House District 88: Rep. Grossl gets her first challenge after winning the seat in 2024 by 125 votes. Chaffin is an Emerge graduate, but has been disqualified from ballot and has filed suit. Miller is an independent and a local lawyer that is running to the right of Grossl.

– House District 91: This is an open Seat to replace Bill Wesley who ran unsuccessfully for State Senate. Billings a car dealer, Chamber-endorsed, won GOP primary and faces Johnson a local teacher.

– House District 93: Rep. Camuel gets her first GOP challenger since winning the seat in a special election. Rivera has been around Frankfort with previous employer KCTCS. 

– House District 95: This is an open seat to replace the retiring Rep. Tackett-Laferty. Hesterberg is a former TV anchor and attorney, endorsed by the Chamber, and ran for Senate in 2024. Turner is a former Senator trying to hold the seat for Democrats.

A few to watch in the Senate:

Senate District 14: This is an open seat to replace the retiring Jimmy Higdon. Pharmacist Ben Mudd is the GOP nominee and Carrie Truitt is the Democratic nominee.

Senate District 34: Sen. Carpenter (R) averages 60% of the vote in his general election challenges and faces a political newcomer in Jessica McIntosh.

Senate District 36: Sen. Adams (R) faces general election challenge from Sarah McIntosh a JCPS Board member.

What do these elections mean for you?

While this election may not have a major impact on the overall makeup of the Kentucky Legislature—it will continue to remain a large supermajority GOP—the influx of new members continues the trend of steady turnover among Kentucky legislators. In addition to the new members, upcoming organizational sessions mean that caucuses will elect leadership teams and select new committee chairs.

The caucus leadership teams ultimately determine the agenda for what legislation may or may not be considered in any given session. The committee chairs are also crucial to the legislative process, as they determine which bills move forward in their respective committees. 

Open Senate chairmanships:

– Transportation, formerly held by retiring Senator Jimmy Higdon

Open House chairmanships:

– K-12 Education Committee, formerly held by Rep. Scott Lewis

– State Government Committee, formerly held by Rep. David Hale

– Budget Review Subcommittee on K-12 Education, formerly held by Rep. Kim Banta

– Budget Review Subcommittee on Transportation, formerly held by Rep. Ken Upchurch

Additionally, the 2026 elections will impact the makeup of the legislative committees. We have taken a quick look at several committees and, which legislators are leaving office, lost primaries, or have challenged elections. You can see that review for the Senate HERE and the House HERE.

Overall, the turnover of members and chairmanship vacancies leaves a loss of institutional knowledge in the Kentucky General Assembly. We will continue working with you to educate new and old members alike on your issues.

Federal Races

With the retirement of Senior U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, both parties had contested primaries to fill the open seat. Congressman Andy Barr is the GOP nominee and Charles Booker is the Democratic nominee. In the 6th Congressional District, with Barr running for Senate, former State Sen. Ralph Alvarado is the GOP nominee and Zach Dembo is the Democratic nominee. 

What’s Next?

Stay tuned for a recap with the election results in November and a preview of the upcoming Legislative Session in early-December, where we’ll discuss the impacts of this election season and what you can expect as policymakers convene.